Heat Pump Cost Calculator
A heat pump replaces the air conditioner and the furnace. Price it against both, or the comparison flatters the wrong machine.
Heat pump cost calculator
The quote, itemised
| Line item | Amount | What it covers |
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Compare it against two machines, not one
An air-source heat pump heats and cools, so it replaces both the air conditioner and the furnace. The comparison that matters is therefore heat pump versus AC plus furnace, not heat pump versus AC — and that comparison usually narrows a $4,000 gap to something closer to $1,000, because the furnace was going to cost $4,000 anyway.
Run the calculator above against a 3-ton AC plus an 80,000 BTU furnace and the heat pump typically comes out $800 to $2,500 more installed, before any rebate. Whether that is worth it depends on the operating cost, which the heat pump versus furnace page works out from your fuel prices, and on whether the air conditioner was already failing.
What the cold-climate premium buys
A standard heat pump loses 30 to 40 percent of its rated capacity between 47°F and 17°F. A cold-climate model — the ones on the NEEP list, typically with vapour injection and a larger outdoor coil — holds much more of its capacity down to 5°F, and keeps running below that. That is what the extra $300 to $600 a ton purchases: not a better efficiency rating in mild weather, but the ability to be the actual heating system in cold weather instead of a supplement to electric strips.
Whether you need it is a load question, not a preference. If the calculated heating load at your design temperature is 45,000 BTU per hour and the standard unit delivers 28,000 there, the difference is 17,000 BTU of strip heat on the coldest nights. A cold-climate unit delivering 38,000 cuts that to 7,000. In zone 4 the strips might run forty hours a year and nobody notices; in zone 6 they run four hundred and the bill notices.
Electrical work is the quiet line item
Heat pumps draw more current than the air conditioners they replace, particularly with strip heat installed. A house with a 100 amp service and an electric range may not have the capacity for a 3-ton heat pump plus a 10 kW strip kit, and the answer is either a smaller strip kit, a load-managing controller, or a service upgrade at $1,500 to $3,000.
This is the item that turns a $7,000 quote into a $10,000 one, and it is worth asking about before signing: what is the calculated load, what size is the existing service, and does the quote include a panel change. A contractor who has not looked at the panel has not priced the job.
The strips are cheap to install and expensive to run
A 10 kW strip kit costs $200 to $400 and takes an hour to install, which is why it appears in almost every quote. Running it is another matter: at 17 cents a kilowatt-hour, resistance heat delivers a million BTU for about $50, against $19 for the heat pump at a seasonal COP of 2.6. If the strips carry 15 percent of the annual heating, they add roughly a third to the heating bill for that portion.
The alternative in a cold climate is dual fuel: keep a furnace as the backup and switch to it below the economic balance point. It costs more up front and keeps a gas connection alive, but it removes the strip penalty entirely and gives the house two independent heat sources.
Rebates, and what is left in 2026
The federal 25C credit ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025, so a 2026 installation gets nothing from the IRS regardless of what a contractor's paperwork says. What remains is state and utility money, and the range is enormous: Mass Save pays $1,500 to $3,000 on an air-source heat pump and considerably more for whole-home electrification, New York's Clean Heat program pays $500 to $1,000 through participating contractors, Colorado stacks a state credit with Xcel rebates, and income-qualified HEAR programs still operate in some states because they were funded separately.
Two practical notes. Rebates are usually claimed by the contractor and applied to the invoice, which is better for cash flow but makes quotes harder to compare, because a contractor who is not enrolled in the program will show a higher number for the same equipment. And almost every program requires an AHRI certificate and a specific model number, so confirm eligibility before the equipment is ordered rather than after.
What this estimate leaves out
Ductwork. A heat pump moves more air per ton than a furnace and is less forgiving of a restrictive duct system, so a house with undersized returns may need duct work that the quote does not mention. It also excludes the cost of removing an existing furnace in a dual-fuel conversion, oil tank removal if there is one, and any refrigerant line replacement beyond a standard 25 foot run.
Frequently asked questions
How much does a heat pump cost installed in 2026?
A 3-ton air-source system typically runs $6,000 to $11,000 installed, a cold-climate model $1,000 to $2,000 more, and a dual-fuel setup more again because it includes a furnace. The range is wide because electrical work and duct condition vary more between houses than equipment prices do.
Is a heat pump cheaper than an AC plus a furnace?
No, it is usually $800 to $2,500 more installed, because it replaces both machines. The comparison only makes sense against the combined cost, and it improves further when the existing air conditioner is already at the end of its life.
Do I need a cold-climate heat pump?
If you are in zone 5 or colder and intend the heat pump to be the primary heat source, usually yes. In zone 4 and warmer a standard unit with a modest strip kit is often enough, and the premium buys capacity you rarely need.
Will I need an electrical panel upgrade?
Sometimes. A 3-ton heat pump with a 10 kW strip kit can draw more than an old 100 amp service can spare, especially with an electric range and dryer. Ask for the calculated load and the service size before signing; a panel upgrade adds $1,500 to $3,000.
Can I keep my furnace and add a heat pump?
Yes, that is a dual-fuel system, and in a cold climate it is often the best answer: the heat pump runs above the balance point, the furnace below it, and the strip heat never runs at all. The cost is a second appliance to maintain and a gas connection you keep paying for.
Are there still heat pump rebates in 2026?
Not federal ones — Section 25C ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025. State and utility programs remain in many states, some of them large, and income-qualified HEAR rebates still operate where funding remains.
How long does a heat pump last?
Twelve to fifteen years for the outdoor unit, somewhat less than a furnace, and the compressor is the usual failure point. Maintenance matters more than with a furnace because a heat pump runs year-round.
Disclaimer: This tool prices a heat pump changeout, including the line set and the electrical work a cold-climate unit usually needs. It is not a quote, and it excludes ductwork replacement, any state or utility rebate you may qualify for, and financing.
Related: Cold-weather performance · All HVAC calculators · Heat pump vs furnace · AC cost · Furnace cost